SUMMARY... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase along and ahead of a cold front moving into eastern KS, northern MO, and far southeastern IA. Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible and a watch will likely be needed across portions of the region.
DISCUSSION...
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from
Southern WI southwestward across southeast IA, northwest MO, and eastern KS. A weak surface trough also exists ahead of this cold front from EMP (in east-central KS) northeastward to just north of MKC and then eastward across central MO. Thus far, deep convection along the front has struggled to persist, likely a result of modest convective inhibition. Some deeper convection has been noted across east-central IA along the front but the expectation is for convection to continue struggling along the front until it reaches farther southeast (i.e. northern MO and far southeast IA/west-central IL) where warmer temperatures and better low-level moisture exists. In these areas, little to no convective inhibition remains. Attempts at deeper convection along the surface trough are expected to eventually succeed, resulting in an overall increase in thunderstorm activity across the region. Air mass is characterized by enough instability and vertical shear to support storm/updraft organization. The primary severe threat appears to be damaging wind gusts, although the cool mid-level temperatures (i.e. -13 to -14 deg C at 500 mb) will likely support some hail as well. Convective trends will be monitored closely and watch will likely be needed across portions of the area.
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