Everyone was waiting for a black swan. This is it.
No one saw it coming, and it will (probably) trigger the worst economic depression in history — the epitome of a black swan event.
Even now that it's here still, few even see it because the infected are only in the thousands now, and people don't understand exponential growth. Every year 5-20% of people get the flu. This virus has the same contagious level as the flu or worse. 5-20% of the world is about to get a 'flu' that 5% of people die from.
China's economy is plummeting, and the country is still feeling the pain of the trade war with America. An outbreak of a new and deadly virus is the last thing The Chinese economy needed.
The Wuhan coronavirus — which has killed 56 people and infected nearly 2000 so far — has already roiled Chinese markets and thrown plans for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday into chaos for millions of Chinese.
If Beijing does not succeed in containing the disease rapidly, it will cause more pain for a country that was already trying to ward off a severe recession by trying to encourage more consumer spending. An epidemic could have the opposite effect.
It would be extreme ignorance or complete denial to think that an indefinite quarantine of at least 50 million people (and growing) will not have an effect on the Chinese or global economy. This could very well be the pin that pops the EVERYTHING BUBBLE.
This is the problem with massive debt load all over the world. It doesn't take much to turn a company from black to red. Once defaults start, banks will drop like dominoes, and every profitless zombi corporation goes to zero as investor confidence of "future profits" evaporates. I have been saying for years only a black swan brings this house of cards down, and the Coronavirus might just be the ticket.
The global economy was already sinking into a recession prior to this black swan event. This will certainly pour gasoline on the already declining global economy. The question now is, WHAT WILL THE CENTRAL BANKS DO.
Will they continue to debase their currency and hyperinflate the stock market in an attempt to convince the plebs that everything is awesome? Or will the capitulate and allow the stock market to reflect the true state of the economy.
Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles?
Only time will tell...
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