北, '연말시한' 압박부터 ICBM 고체연료 시험 가능성까지... 전문가들 "연내 북미대화 가능성 희박" Some experts believe while North Korea appears to have test a solid fuel engine for launching ICBMs, the regime is unlikely to go ahead and such missiles in the near future.
They also add, Pyeongyang and Washington may not hold talks anytime soon.
Oh Jung-hee shares with us the analysis.
Well into the final month of 2019, and with the end of the year just around the corner,... Pyeongyang continues to test Washington's limits.
On Saturday, North Korea's ambassador to the UN, Kim Song, threatened an end to the nuclear negotiations, saying "denuclearization" is already off the table.
The remark was followed shortly by what North Korea called "a very important test," widely seen to be of a solid-fuel ICBM engine.
"Considering the limits of liquid-fuel missiles, which need time to be fuelled and therefore can be detected prior to an actual launch, North Korea has always seen a need for solid-fuel missiles. Therefore, what they call a new and strategic test is highly likely to be a solid-fuel ICBM engine."
Testing something that helps fire an ICBM more quickly and discreetly, North Korea is pressing the U.S. to come up with a new approach by the end of the year in an ever stronger tone.
But experts think the North won't go as far as to actually fire ICBMs as that could completely destroy its dialogue opportunity with the U.S.
"Kim Jong-un is going to have to show a little bit of patience or restraint when it comes to this deadline. He could test an intermediate range ballistic missile, he could launch a satellite, he could launch medium or submarine launched ballistic missiles. He does not have to go to an ICBM or a nuclear test. If he does those things, Donald Trump is going to be forced to respond. Does it mean military action? But we're looking at maximum pressure 2.0, we're looking at more sanctions."
The two sides resuming talks before the year ends may help alleviate the escalating tensions.
But pundits see the possibility of working-level talks bearing fruit as very low.
"We're hearing that U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun might visit South Korea, so we can't rule out the possibility of a dramatic meeting between the North and the U.S. taking place at Panmunjeom. But because the two sides haven't been making progress, I think it's difficult for them to hold any practical working-level talks."
Over the weekend, the presidents of South Korea and the U.S. spoke on the phone.
According to Seoul's presidential office, the talks were held at Washignton's request and were focused on the North Korea nuclear issue.
That's a call for South Korea to play a role in the months-long stalled negotiations.
Experts suggest Seoul should step in and mediate use whatever back channels it has to tell the North that the red line should not be crossed.
Oh Jung-hee, Arirang News.
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